Friday, March 7, 2008

Prediction: The Next U.S. President will be a democrat.

I've been watching the primaries with much excitement. Even before the primary elections, I enjoyed the news coverage about how much money each candidate had raised -- as if it were a real surrogate of election success back in October and November 2007. When the Iowa Caucus began, I was honestly undecided. But I was excited, nay pleasantly surprised, and thoroughly amused by Barack Obama winning that election.

IOWA...All I know, All I owe, I owe I-O-WAY. Yes, the Whitest, most rural Place in the STATES. I thought to myself...If Iowa's Democrats are ready for a Black President, then by gosh, the rest of the nation is, too. Nevermind his age, his experience, his bourgeoisie-style...Pish Posh. Iowans picked Barack Obama.

And I continue to watch the primaries. I commend Huckabee & Ron Paul for hanging in there. I totally agree with him...Until a candidate has secured the required delegates, then there is no party-representative. I know campaigning is expensive and there are reasons to pull out if you haven't secure X percentage of delegates (or favored to do so in upcoming contests) then it's a cost-benefit analysis. For Edwards, maybe it was ego -- losing your home state is reason to stop now. But I still think he and Richardson should have stayed in at least until the Feb Super Tuesday. I mean, they had constituents..Give them/us an opportunity to vote for you and let you know we favor you. And Romney, what a weak-a** bow-out. He was ahead of Huckabee, he could have shaved some delegates from McCain. Give people a choice. That's what primaries are about -- Choices, not inevitable remainders.

My final thought. I have been most impressed with voter turn out to primary elections/caucuses across the board. For every state* the Democratic turn out far out-numbered the Republican turn out - most by double or more. If people remain true to party lines then the Democrats are definitely favored to be in the White House next year. Look out Conservatives, I think it's time to prepare a swan song.

* Every state that had legitimate primaries/caucuses for both parties. Michigan and Florida Democratic primaries were bogus and I posit that Democratic voter turn out was less because voters were aware of the violation of DNC rules and knew the Delegates wouldn't be seated. Some states host separate election/caucus dates for each party so all data is not it, e.g. Wyoming.

No comments: